Orange County Register

Think UCLA at 4-5 is a cinch to make a bowl game with two more victories? Think again. In a testament to how weird this Pac-10 season has been, in order for the Bruins to earn a bowl invitation, not only must they beat Washington State and Arizona State but they likely need USC to win out … which means they would need to lose to USC in their regular season finale.

Consider the following:

• There are only six guaranteed bowl spots for the Pac-10.
• UCLA, with two victories in its final three games, would be 3-6 (6-6 overall) and finish seventh in the conference.
• UCLA, if it wins out, would be 4-5 (7-5 overall) and still probably finish seventh in the conference. (Only Cal, currently 3-3 in the Pac-10, has a reasonable shot of falling below UCLA. If USC loses out it could also finish behind UCLA.)
• Oregon’s loss to Stanford ended the Ducks’ outside shot of playing in the BCS title game, which would have given the conference an extra bowl bid.
• USC is the only Pac-10 team in line to play in a BCS bowl other than the Rose Bowl, which would give the conference an extra bowl bid.
• If Oregon wins out, it’s going to Pasadena. If the Ducks were to lose again, their ranking would be too low to play in another BCS Bowl. Neither Arizona, Oregon State or Stanford are positioned to finish high enough to make another BCS Bowl. (Note: Another Oregon loss would probably mean a three-way tie atop the conference, which could put USC in the Rose Bowl and deny the Pac-10 the extra bowl bid.)

In other words, UCLA needs any team other than USC in the Rose Bowl and USC in another BCS bowl. This leads to my favorite part: Heading into their season finale with USC, the Bruins, with victories in their next two games, could be in a situation where they would knock themselves out of a bowl by beating USC (subsequently knocking the Trojans out of a BCS bowl) but would ensure making a bowl by losing. That would be fascinating.

More from the USC blog:

• USC football: Harris, Gerhart nab Pac-10 honors
• USC football: ‘Like the Washington game’
• Report card: Grading the Trojans (vs. ASU)
• USC football: Not all Barkley’s fault, Carroll says
• USC football: Carroll questions rankings
• USC football: Additional injury updates
• USC football: Damian Williams might have high ankle sprain
• USC football: Trojans ahead of the Ducks? Huh?
• USC football: 5 observations from USC-ASU
• Complete wrapup of Trojans-Sun Devils

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