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Stafon Johnson injury cinches it: Leave early if you can
September 30th, 2009, 7:00 am · 14 Comments · posted by Michael Lev, staff writer
Pete Carroll isn’t going to like this, but here goes …
When I was covering the NFL, I had three basic theories about when college players should declare for the NFL draft:
- Quarterbacks should wait as long as possible because the more snaps and reads you get at that position, the better.
- Running backs should leave as soon as possible because they can take only so many hits.
- Everyone else should go on a case-by-case basis.
Since I began covering USC in July 2008, several events have changed my outlook, with Stafon Johnson’s frightening throat injury being the latest.
I now believe any player who’s draft-eligible and has a reliable read on his prospects from the NFL should take the money and run. The alternative is just too risky.
Look at the current Trojans. Johnson probably would have been a third- or fourth-round pick in April after a junior season in which he rushed for a team-best 705 yards and nine touchdowns. Had he remained healthy this year, it’s unlikely, with a reduced role, that he would have gone any higher.
Now, who knows? Doctors say he will make a full recovery, which is wonderful. But he’ll have to pass the NFL’s battery of medical tests to convince someone to take him where he deserves to go.
Johnson could apply for another year of eligibility, but after suffering one career-threatening injury, why would he want to risk another? I wouldn’t. Would you?
Teammate Taylor Mays would have been a first-round pick in the 2009 draft, possibly a top-10 pick. He elected to return … and injured his knee in Week 2 against Ohio State.
Mays somewhat reluctantly returned against Washington State, with a knee brace that he might have to wear all season. Carroll says it doesn’t hinder him; Mays seems to think it does. Playing hurt will prove Mays’ toughness to the NFL; being hurt will not help his draft stock.
Paraphrasing Terrell Owens‘ former publicist, I joked before the Washington State game that Mays had 10 million reasons not to play. You can’t tell me that isn’t somewhere in the back of his mind.
Meanwhile, another sure-fire top-10 pick who elected to return to school, Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, might or might not return this week from an injured throwing shoulder. Had he left school and suffered the same injury with an NFL team, he’d have about $40 million coming his way if the shoulder didn’t respond.
Bradford’s decision to return made ex-Trojan Mark Sanchez the clear-cut No. 2 quarterback, and there’s little doubt, at least at this point, that his decision to forgo a fifth year was the correct one.
(Even Carroll conceded that point to a degree Monday, saying on his Twitter page: “Couldn’t be more fired up about how Mark Sanchez is playing. … He’s absolutely proven he belongs in the NFL.)
Now, I realize that money isn’t everything, that the college experience is invaluable and unique and that it still is an individual decision. But the majority of the players who come to USC do so with an NFL career in mind.
Pro football is a great way to make money and take care of your family. It’s also a vicious, violent vocation. The average length of a career, according to the NFL Players Association, is 3 1/2 years. Why not get it started as soon as possible?
More from the USC blog:
- USC football: Bradford, Gable ready to step up
- USC football: DE Nick Perry unable to practice
- USC football: Regarding ‘medical redshirts’
- USC football: Carroll says Johnson doing better
- USC football: The secrets to Nick Perry’s success
- USC football: Stafon Johnson just the latest loss for Trojans
- USC football: Stafon Johnson out of surgery, prognosis good
- USC football: Johnson in surgery; impact felt teamwide
- USC football: Barkley’s shoulder much improved
- USC football: Additional injury updates
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I don’t disagree with much of what you write, but I think that the “take the money and run” approach has the greatest merit for those players who are first day draft picks. I think you completely missed a factor which should be a major consideration for the day-two guys (who make up the majority of NFL-bound CFB players). These are the guys who can expect to be in the NFL for 3 1/2 years (or less), and they will not make enough money in that span to last the rest of their lives. Their decision should consider both their NFL draft status, AND what they plan to do in the next 40 years. For many of these guys (but not all), a college degree may serve them well. Most of them will not sustain career-ending injuries in their final year of CFB, and most will not necessarily enjoy a longer NFL career by leaving early. So “get it started as soon as possible” doesn’t help them.
Life is full of tough of decisions that will impact people’s lives for decades. The wisest career decisions are those consider the longest horizons, not just the next 3 years.
Thankfully our players for the most part listen to their coaches instead of sportwriters. Especially ones who’s hero is Scott Wolfe and wishes he was with the Times instead of the register, so his anti USC bias would be the norm. We have already learned from Lev that Pete has an irrational, illogical fixation on Barkley. A foolish column that has already has been disproven on the field with our QB’s. Now we get this. Sell this nonsense in Westwood. Names like Duane Jarrett, Mike Williams, Fred Matua and the like prove that this is not an exact science and like most “sportwriters” today you are just trying to stir it up as opposed to write anything meritorious.
I heard Charles Barkley talking about Michael Jordan and he said something to the effect that Michael has to come to terms with the fact that he will never reached the heights he did as a basketball player. For many athletes college now is the apex of their playing career. I was talking to a former Trojan player from the NC teams and that was the highlight of his football career. He has played in the NFL, but not as a star and so it does not provide the same fulfilment. For that athlete the NFL is a way to make money, but USC was the greatest time of his life.
Most college students do not realise this, but now is the best time in their lives. Why diminish it? Unless a player needs the money for his family, I think there are just as many reasons to stay as to go. I am confident that if Stafon is unable to pursue his football career at the next level because of this injury, that the Trojan family will ensure that he has sufficient opportunities elsewhere.
Looking at past USC QB’s, Palmer went from a guy who threw as many INT’s as TD’s in his junior year to a Heisman winner and #1 draft pick. Clearly he made the wise decision to stay. (In reality, it was the only decision, unless he was very confident that he could tear up the combine workouts.)
The jury is still out on Leinart. Had he declared for the draft after his junior year, he probably would have been the #1 pick by the 49′ers, but who knows where he would be now. Possibly in two pieces, given their offensive line that year or buried on the depth chart like Alex Smith. As is, he is about to inherit a potential Super Bowl team with two of the best WR’s in the game. Plus, he looked like he was having a pretty good time his senior year, what with the ballroom dancing class and Paris Hilton.
And clearly Sanchez made the wise decision to skip his senior year. Dang, he is looking good out there!
We can’t be sold on Lev’s NFL eligibility formula. Some backs have great potential but didn’t operate in systems that exposed them to much abuse and can afford to remain in school and continue to impress the NFL scouts because of their potential. This is just one example but many more exist
As to Lev’s bigger picture outlook, it is harder to disagree. For players with NFL caliber talent, the goal is to be a successful pro player and that means taking the first, best opportunity.
The reality is that many of these players come from the lower socio-economic class (yes, it does exist despite life long indoctrination stating otherwise) and stand to gain much by going pro at the first opportunity.
From the fan perspective and college coach perspective, we would like to see them remain but honestly, in our social system, can we expect them to sacrifice their potential for our enjoyment.
Agreed, take the money and run….
Agreed, nice take Lev. Although I wish the best for Stafon, I’m not sure his NFL prospects are any better or worse. He was and will still be a 4-5 round pick not likely to last long in the league. Hopefully, he can heal quickly and make a team.
You know I never understood the whole “earn your degree so you have a fallback” opinion that those who are against athletes leaving school early use. The minimum salary for an NFL player this year is $310,000 and goes up each year you’re in the league. How many college graduates make this sort of money their first year out of school (excluding Ivy League)? So even if an athelete is only in the league a couple years, they are still making more money than they would with a degree. And nothing is stopping that athlete from going back to school and getting that degree if things don’t work out.
I think Mr. Lev is correct. An athlete can always go back and finish college, but he can’t always make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year or more in the pros. This extra year a USC, as well as this unfortnate injury, could very easily cost Stafon millions of dollars. It’s not about greed, it’s about security. And anyone who stays on a college team “for the fun of it” is just plain foolish, IMO.
Just to put this in perspective, John David Booty was drafted as the second pick in the 5th round last year. He received a signing bonus of $205K (which apparently is larger than most 5th round picks because he is a QB) and he earned a base salary of $295K, for a total of $500k. Over the next three years, his base salary will gradually increase to $555k, if he lasts that long. But…currently he is a practice quad player, and may be looking at a shorter career. Who knows?
At any rate, there is a strong possibility that he will require gainful employment in another occupation by his mid-30s. Fortunately, he has his degree, and I expect that he will be successful. Since the average career is only 3 1/2 years, many of these guys would be wise to get their degrees while they can…as not all of them will “go back” once they get into the real world.
some good points here i don’t think lev is trying to stir up the pot at all he actually has been going on this topic gradually due to stafon’s injury, medical redshirts, and why stafon probably won’t want to redshirt and just get in the draft. its crazy that a back like stafon who truly does look like he would tear it up in the NFL would only be 3-5th round potential, but i guess thats the problem with being a RB in USCs system. the money isn’t really there for a RB at our school anymore, since the days of having one or two feature backs is all gone. being from seattle and an alumni of mays’ school i heard that taylor really was going to stay and it baffled me….but it isn’t “foolish” to stay in college for the fun, because who can say that college wasn’t the time of their lives? musta been sad times for that person, because college gives these guys the oppurtunity to play football, be really good at it, and still not have to worry about every responsiblity having a career holds. its like being able to extend your childhood in a sense, even though they’re all young adults. i think in stafon’s case if the money will make things easy go for it. but not everybody is going to bank their whole lives on an NFL career, and those that choose to get their degree and still test the NFL are the biggest winners in my eyes
Although well thought out, I totally disagree with Lev regarding Stafon.
If Stafon was in the 2009 Draft, barring a super-human combine Stafon would of been either a late round pick or not picked at all. If he was in it for the short money, he could of come out and probably gotten the NFL minimum this year. (See, e.g., Fred Matua). If he comes back, he has a chance at a spectacular year and a chance to jump to the 1st round for the millions and the big signing bonuses. (See, e.g., Brian Cushing).
Due to a freak accident, Stafon is now seriously hurt and we all wish him a speedy recovery. But if he wants to play in the NFL someday he would be really foolish to come out for the 2010 Draft. If he cannot perform in the combines, he will not be drafted. If he does perform solidly in the combines, he would probably be a 5th or 6th round pick unless he looks like Superman in Indy, which given his current condition is doubtful.
If Stafon comes back next year, he will have a chance for a break out year and chance to jump into the first day of the Draft.
Two words: Tom Malone.
Two words: Disco Duck.
“I now believe any player who’s draft-eligible and has a reliable read on his prospects from the NFL should take the money and run. The alternative is just too risky.”
I concur totally with this assessment. Most if not all players go to major colleges on football scholarships for one purpose and that is the prospect for playing professional football for the unusually high compensation that is available. When there is the opportunity to be selected by the NFL, it is simply not good business to turn it down in order to stay around campus for one more year and put up with Pete Carroll or Nick Saban.
Bradford should not have returned for another year and after seeing Tebow get hit the other night, he should not have come back, likewise the QB at Texas. From what I saw, Tebow came within an inch of a broken neck.
There are no college graduates that I know that make a starting salary of 300K+ and on that pay scale, it only takes about three years to make a million in the NFL. I don’t know about the other writers on this board but it took me a lot longer to acquire that kind of net worth.
My firm pays brand new hires $55K and they may get to 100K if they make partner in about five years. These new hires have suffered through four years of college, graduate school and then three years of grueling law school. When they come to us they look and act like starved rats as they have been deprived for so long. Their college dept is very large and takes all they can make to pay it back.
When a player becomes eligible for the NFL, I would highly recommend he accept the opportunity.