USC football: A reason Mark Sanchez should stay

January 13th, 2009, 7:30 am · 6 Comments · posted by Michael Lev, staff writer

There are roughly a billion variables that determine whether a quarterback will have a successful NFL career. Some of the most important ones are system, coach, injuries, supporting cast and staff continuity.

I happen to believe college experience should rank at or near the top of that list, and if I were advising USC’s Mark Sanchez about his pending draft decision, I’d urge him to stay in school because he doesn’t have enough.

This isn’t just some random theory from a guy who “never played the game.” I covered the NFL for 12 years and looked back at the first-round quarterbacks from the past 10 drafts. There were exceptions, of course, but for the most part, the quarterbacks who played more games in college fared better in the pros.

Here are some of my findings:

** Every first-round quarterback in the past 10 drafts started full time for at least two seasons except one — Akili Smith, an indisputable bust as the No. 3 pick in 1999. Smith had 19 career starts at Oregon; Sanchez has 16 careers starts at USC.

** Of the eight first-round quarterbacks who were underclassmen, only one is a undisputed success — Ben Roethlisberger, who started for three years at Miami of Ohio (and had a redshirt year). Aaron Rodgers, who started for two years at Cal and one at a junior college, had a promising first season. Here are the other underclassmen: Tim Couch, Michael Vick, Rex Grossman, Alex Smith, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell. Ouch.

** The best quarterbacks to come out of the past 10 drafts — Donovan McNabb, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler — started for at least three seasons in college.

As mentioned, there were exceptions. Major disappointments also include seasoned seniors Cade McNown, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Kyle Boller, J.P. Losman and Matt Leinart (who still has a chance to turn around his career).

Every case is individual. Sanchez might be fine without a ton of college starts because he spent four seasons at USC and learned under passing-game guru Steve Sarkisian. But the past 10 first rounds do suggest that experience matters.

Actually, you can make it 11: Peyton Manning was a senior with three-plus years of starting experience coming out of Tennessee; Ryan Leaf was a junior who started for two seasons at Washington State.

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Rhinochaser says:

January 13, 2009 at 9:17 am

Don’t think this is a really compelling case. I’d like to believe you because I want Sanchez to stay, but this argument has too many holes. There are more exceptions than you state (and even looking at Leinart is an argument to go), but the most obvious and closest to home is Matt Cassell who never started a game at SC and seems to be off to a pretty good start. No - this is going to come down to values. Finish what you started or go for dough.

Michael Lev, staff writer says:

January 13, 2009 at 12:11 pm

Re: Cassel … As I stated, there are always going to be exceptions. My premise is that QBs are MORE LIKELY to succeed if they stay in school. Also, I only looked at first-round QBs over the past 10 seasons.

Cassel is a good example of the corollary to my experience theory — that you’re more likely to succeed in the NFL if you don’t play right away (Cassel, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Tony Romo, Steve McNair, et al). NFL history suggests Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco are flukes — although they did play through their senior years.

Doug says:

January 13, 2009 at 1:34 pm

Mr. Lev:

Your reasoning is too sound to waste an argument over it.

January 13, 2009 at 1:37 pm

I got Doug to agree with me about something … I must be having a good day.

January 13, 2009 at 5:44 pm

You have no idea how many times I agree with you. I like keeping it like that. However, with the writer commenting on Cassel, I found it necessary to say something. I can’t recall too many instances of a “Cassel.” It would be naive for Sanchez to believe he was the same as Cassel.

It was Sanchez who said that he had a history of knee problems, so he wasn’t too worried when he dislocated his knee by “just walking”. Has anyone told him that the NFL does a medical background check of players prior to signing them?

I originally believed that Mays would return on the basis of his not declaring until Mark did. Mays wouldn’t wait just to have both him and Mark declare for the NFL - at the same time.

However, Mays has just declared that he would return. If the above was true, then it would be logical that Mark is declaring for the NFL. Now, there’s only two reasons Mark hasn’t declared. The first is that he’s launching his Heisman campaign. Lord knows that USC’s PR Department is terrible at that sort of thing. The second is he wants the “PUB” in the media for launching his NFL “campaign.”

Mr. Lev, a person would have to be living in the “Land of Narnia” to believe that Mark hasn’t made up his mind.

Todd Smith says:

January 13, 2009 at 8:59 pm

Very sound reasoning all the way around. I believe the two most difficult positions in the transition to the NFL are QB and OL. They all should stay in school. Lev is spot on. I would even go one step further, add in the benefit of personal and emotional maturation. Being even another year older only helps. Don’t jump to look at Chris Weinke and he was 26. The point is the added experience in every facet helps in many many ways for what is a very demanding transition that most of us really cannot fathom.

Nice post Lev

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